中国秘密通知禁放鞭炮，习近平降为中央委员，无权看绝密新华社动态清样。习近平处于停职检查的状态。习近平自称七下八上，官宣自己下台。2名政治局委员常委缺席7月政治局会议
中国秘密通知禁放鞭炮，习近平降为中央委员，无权看绝密新华社动态清样。习近平处于停职检查的状态。习近平自称七下八上，官宣自己下台。2名政治局委员常委缺席7月政治局会议
大家好，
新华社北京7月28日电 中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平对防汛救灾工作作出重要指示。
习近平指出，近日华东、华北、东北等地持续遭遇强降雨，引发洪涝和地质灾害，造成北京、河北、吉林、山东等地重大人员伤亡和财产损失。要扎实做好防汛抢险救灾各项工作，全力搜救失联被困人员，果断转移安置受威胁群众，最大限度减少人员伤亡。
习近平强调，当前正处在“七下八上”防汛关键期，各地区和有关部门要树牢底线思维、极限思维，全面压实 政治责任，落实落细各项防汛措施，盯紧守牢薄弱环节和重点部位，科学调配救援力量和救灾物资，确保发生突发紧急情况后第一时间响应、第一时间处置，全力保障人民生命财产安全。
中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强作出批示指出，北京市密云区暴雨洪涝灾害造成重大人员伤亡，要全力搜救失联人员，妥善安置受灾群众，尽最大努力减少伤亡。近期华北部分地区连降暴雨，国家防总要指导相关地方进一步强化暴雨洪涝灾害防范应对，做好极端天气监测预警，加强江河、水库堤坝巡护查险和城市内涝隐患排查，及时转移涉险群众，切实保障人民群众生命财产安全。
我们看一下这里面穿帮的地方太多了。
我们先对比一下往年的2004年根本就没有提李强。
我们再往前找一年2023年，当时还有的批示。
不过当时李强上来就说
要求认真贯彻落实总书记重要指示精神，
没有看到2022年，那么2021年呢
2021年也没有提李克强什么事儿。
2020年也不提李克强
最大的穿帮还不是李强闭口不提习近平。而是习近平提到的这4个省
北京，河北，吉林，山东。
我们看新闻
中国北方暴雨 河北山西传死亡失踪北京水库泄洪
（中央社台北27日电）中国北方省市连日降下暴雨，陆续酿出灾情。河北省阜平县截至昨晚6时止已有2人死亡、2人失踪，4.6万人受灾；山西省天镇县1辆客车今晨遭大水淹没，车上12人全数失联；北京市的密云水库进水量更因暴雨创历史新高，在今天下午泄洪。
新华社的报道里面没有提山西，在习近平的世界里，他还不知道山西发洪水呢。
云南昭通二度洪灾 吉林集安多名老人死于洪水
受到台风影响，云南昭通市连日暴雨，威信县和彝良县境内河流暴涨，七月以来已遭遇二度洪灾，商户叫苦连天，其中，子反坝村已泡水多天，急需救援。此外，有人参之乡称号的吉林集安市有多名老人死于洪水，但当局封锁消息。
我们看关键这一句，当局封锁消息，然后新华社说吉林有重大人员伤亡。
也就是说这个报告报道习近平哪里，的确吉林有重大人员伤亡，就是死了不人，
但是中国的媒体没有任何报道
虽然习近平知道这件事情但是这是7月24号，这都过去多少天了。
这个山东就更离谱了，
中国山东省突降暴雨引发山洪，官方7月22日通报，这次暴雨导致济南市莱芜区已有两人死亡、10人失联。通往灾区的电力、通信及道路出现中断。
这已经是7月22日的事情了
我们看这个时间线就知道了，
7月22日，山东洪灾重大人员伤亡
7月24日，吉林洪灾重大人员伤亡
7月28日，习近平收到报告
我们看
中国总理李强星期一（7月28日）称，北京市密云区暴雨洪涝灾害造成重大人员伤亡。此前，北京官媒星期天（27日）报道称，密云全区共转移3270人，暂无人员伤亡。
首先中国又在瞒报灾情，李强收到报告，北京市密云区死了好多了人。
官媒报道没有人员死亡。
第二个看点就是密云发生洪灾李强几乎在当天就收到报告。
李强压根就没有提到习近平，2023年李强说了要
认真贯彻落实总书记重要指示精神。
李强为什么闭口不提习近平呢，因为习近平压根就收不到报告，
习近平收到的报告7月28日收到了7月22日的报告，都是一个礼拜之前。
也就是说根据新华社的报道，我们分析出来
习近平现在大概能够每个礼拜收到一次综合报告。
发生什么事情根本就不再请示习近平，直接李强拍板。
密云的洪灾李强当天就指示了，根本就没有习近平的指示。
习近平下次收到报告，是一个礼拜之后。
就是每个礼拜收到一个报告，然后习近平画圈圈阅，都不一定是习近平亲自画圈
也可能是秘书替他画圈。
我们看习近平指出和强调根本就没有具体的内容，都是套话空话。
原则性的内容。相反李强的指示是当天发生的内容。
7月22日的新闻联播头条是大力发展农业科技，奋力推进农业现代化。
没有报道习近平对山东洪灾任何的批示
第二条报道是李强签署国务院令，公布农村公路条例
7月23日新闻联播的头条是中国制造向新而行，不断筑牢强国之基
第二条报道时中共中央国务院中央军委关于给蔡旭哲颁发二级航天功勋奖章
7月24日的新闻联播头条是习近平出来接客，
习近平会见欧洲理事会主席和欧盟委员会主席。
7月25日新闻联播的头条是习近平接受外国新任驻华大使递交国书
无非就是这么几种可能
第一习近平没有收到报告
第二习近平收到报告没有批示
第三习近平收到报告，批示了没有报道
现在没有习近平的新闻联播根本就没有习近平的新闻。
天天见个外国客人，发个贺信。
习近平如果批示了应该会报道。
现在不是已经报道了。
现在很有可能，洪灾的事情是李强在管，习近平根本就没有直接管。
每个礼拜给习近平一个报告，通知他一声而已。
这完全就是退休常委或者退休 政治局委员，或者退休中央委员的待遇。
就是省委书记经常什么老干部
1月22日，省政府办公厅在成都召开2025年老同志新春座谈会。省委副书记、省长施小琳向老领导、老同志通报去年全省经济社会发展情况和今年政府工作谋划，听取大家的意见建议
习近平现在就是享受这种老领导老同志的待遇，定期给个通报。
7月24日至28日，应匈牙利国会主席格维尔邀请，中国人大常委会委员长赵乐际对匈牙利进行正式友好访问。这是7月25日，赵乐际在布达佩斯会见匈牙利总统舒尤克。
赵乐际随后还要访问瑞士，并出席第六次世界议长大会
所以赵乐际会缺席7月底的政治局会议。
现在还不知道怎么安排呢。
除了赵乐际还有何立峰也在技术上处于缺席7月底的政治局会议的状态。
因为7月23日，香港党媒放风说，7月底的政治局会议会处理苗华和何卫东。
据报导，中共本月底将会召开政治局会议，届时极有可能公布中央军事委员会前委员、政治工作部主任苗华的罪状，稍后还会有大批将领遭整肃。
星岛日报今天刊文指出，按照惯例，北京中央领导人将于8月初到海滨城市北戴河，以休假式办公两周。在此之前，他们将于本月底召开政治局会议，分析当前经济形势，以及部署下半年经济工作。
但是没有说会不会公布四中全会会期
现在就剩下这么几件事情在等着靴子落地。
何立峰现在也不在北京。
美国和中国代表正在瑞典就长期存在的贸易关税争端举行新一轮会谈。
美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特(Scott Bessent)正在瑞典首都斯德哥尔摩的首相府办公楼会见以中国国务院副总理何立峰为首的中国代表团。
美国总统唐纳德·川普(Donald Trump)在苏格兰访问期间对此次会谈做出评论。他说，他希望看到中国“开放自己的国家”。
川普所说的开放，我不知道有没有 政治含义，在中国语境里开放是有政治含义，改革开放。
开放的最后，中国的很多规则要与世界接轨，现实是中国在抵制与世界规则接轨。
历史文件不具有现实意义，一个不尊重规则，不尊重契约的国家是没有未来的。
美国两国于今年5月同意降低对彼此进口产品征收的巨额关税。美国将关税从145%降至30%，中国则将关税从125%降至10%。
星期一的谈判是在8月12日达成永久协议的最后期限之前进行的。官员们并未排除延长暂停加征关税的可能性。
川普政府首席贸易谈判代表, 美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔(Jamieson Greer)告诉全国广播公司商业频道(CNBC)，总统正在推翻旧的贸易协议。
“70年来，我们奉行的贸易政策或许在某个时期是合理的，但最终的结果是其他国家对美国征收了更高的关税和非关税壁垒，”格里尔说，“川普总统现在正在通过这些协议扭转这一局面……这就是消除贸易逆差的方法；这就是创造制造业繁荣的方法。”
此次谈判前，美国最近几天与欧盟、日本、印尼和菲律宾达成重要贸易协定。
川普星期一表示，15%至20%的关税范围代表了关税谈判的新标准。
由于美国已经与两大主要贸易伙伴欧盟和日本达成协议。
美国的5大贸易伙伴是欧盟，墨西哥，加拿大，中国，德国，日本
等于美国现在已经和最大的贸易伙伴欧盟达成了协议。还有日本
剩下墨西哥加拿大和中国。
墨西哥加拿大还特殊，有一个北美自由贸易协定。
等于就剩下中国了，难道中国一个国家自己扛着吗？
那不是找死，搞笑呢。
中国应该很快就妥协了，再不妥协就来不及了。
国际形势对中国不利
现在就是7月的政治局到底是赵乐际何立峰请假呢，还是延期到8月1号。
除了苗华和何卫东最大的看点就是会不会公布四中全会的日期。
这名网友说，
据传津京冀主要城市无差别宣传不能放鞭炮，也不知真假
，大概率八月就揭锅盖了
好的，谢谢大家。
英文翻译
China secretly issued a ban on fireworks; Xi Jinping was demoted to a member of the Central Committee and has no access to top-secret Xinhua News Agency updates. Xi Jinping is currently suspended from his duties pending investigation. Xi Jinping, who jokingly referred to himself as “seven down, eight up,” officially announced his resignation. Two members of the Politburo Standing Committee were absent from the July Politburo meeting.
Hello everyone,
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, July 28 – Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, President of the People’s Republic of China, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, issued important instructions on flood control and disaster relief work.
Xi Jinping pointed out that recently, East China, North China, and Northeast China have experienced continuous heavy rainfall, triggering floods and geological disasters, causing significant casualties and property losses in Beijing, Hebei, Jilin, Shandong, and other places. It is necessary to earnestly carry out all aspects of flood control, rescue, and disaster relief work, make every effort to search for and rescue missing and trapped people, decisively relocate and resettle threatened people, and minimize casualties.
Xi Jinping emphasized that we are currently in the critical period of flood prevention, known as the “July-August” period. All regions and relevant departments must firmly establish a bottom-line mentality and a limit-strike mentality, fully implement political responsibilities, meticulously implement all flood prevention measures, closely monitor weak links and key areas, scientifically allocate rescue forces and disaster relief supplies, and ensure immediate response and handling in the event of sudden emergencies to fully protect the safety of people’s lives and property.
Li Qiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, issued instructions pointing out that the torrential rain and flooding disaster in Miyun District, Beijing, has caused significant casualties. He stressed the need for all-out efforts to search for missing persons, properly resettle affected people, and minimize casualties. He also noted that recent heavy rains in parts of North China require the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters to guide relevant localities to further strengthen prevention and response to torrential rain and flooding disasters, improve monitoring and early warning of extreme weather, strengthen patrols and inspections of river and reservoir embankments and urban flooding hazards, promptly relocate people at risk, and effectively protect the safety of people’s lives and property.
Let’s look at the many inconsistencies here.
First, let’s compare it to previous years. In 2004, Li Qiang was not mentioned at all.
Let’s look back to 2023. There were still directives then.
However, Li Qiang immediately said, “We require the earnest implementation of the spirit of the General Secretary’s important instructions.”
We didn’t see any mention of 2022, and what about 2021?
Li Keqiang wasn’t mentioned at all in 2021.
Li Keqiang wasn’t mentioned in 2020 either.
The biggest slip-up isn’t that Li Qiang didn’t mention Xi Jinping at all. It’s that Xi Jinping mentioned these four provinces: Beijing, Hebei, Jilin, and Shandong.
We see in the news: Heavy Rains in Northern China: Deaths and Missing Persons Reported in Hebei and Shanxi; Beijing Reservoirs Discharge Floodwaters
(CNA, Taipei, 27th) Heavy rains have fallen in northern China for days, causing successive disasters. In Fuping County, Hebei Province, as of 6 pm last night, two people had died, two were missing, and 46,000 people were affected; in Tianzhen County, Shanxi Province, a bus was submerged this morning, and all 12 people on board are missing; the Miyun Reservoir in Beijing saw record-high inflows due to the heavy rains and began discharging floodwaters this afternoon.
Xinhua News Agency’s report made no mention of Shanxi. In Xi Jinping’s world, he’s unaware of the flooding in Shanxi.
Yunnan’s Zhaotong Suffers Second Flood; Several Elderly People Die in Ji’an, Jilin
Affected by the typhoon, Zhaotong City in Yunnan Province experienced continuous torrential rains, causing rivers in Weixin County and Yiliang County to swell. This marks the second flood since July, causing widespread hardship for businesses. Zifanba Village, in particular, has been submerged for several days and urgently needs rescue. Furthermore, several elderly people died in the floods in Ji’an City, Jilin Province, a place known as the “Hometown of Ginseng,” but the authorities are suppressing the news.
Let’s look at this crucial sentence: the authorities are suppressing the news, and then Xinhua News Agency reports significant casualties in Jilin.
In other words, this report, which is supposed to be about Xi Jinping, does indeed indicate significant casualties in Jilin—many people have died.
However, Chinese media have not reported this.
Although Xi Jinping knows about this, this is July 24th, many days have passed.
This situation in Shandong is even more outrageous.
A sudden downpour in Shandong Province, China, triggered flash floods. On July 22nd, official reports indicated that the floods had resulted in two deaths and 10 missing persons in Laiwu District, Jinan City. Power, communication, and roads leading to the disaster area were disrupted.
This happened on July 22nd.
Looking at this timeline, we can see:
July 22nd: Major casualties in Shandong floods
July 24th: Major casualties in Jilin floods
July 28th: Xi Jinping received a report
We see that Chinese Premier Li Qiang stated on Monday (July 28th) that the torrential rains and floods in Miyun District, Beijing, had caused significant casualties. Previously, Beijing state media reported on Sunday (July 27th) that 3,270 people had been evacuated from Miyun District, with no casualties reported.
Firstly, China is again concealing the extent of the disaster. Li Qiang received a report that many people had died in Miyun District, Beijing.
State media reported no deaths.
The second point is that Li Qiang received the report about the floods in Miyun almost on the same day.
Li Qiang didn’t mention Xi Jinping at all. In 2023, Li Qiang said that the spirit of the General Secretary’s important instructions should be earnestly implemented.
Why did Li Qiang remain silent about Xi Jinping? Because Xi Jinping didn’t even receive the reports.
Xi Jinping received reports from July 28th to July 22nd, both a week prior.
In other words, based on Xinhua News Agency reports, our analysis suggests that Xi Jinping now receives a comprehensive report approximately once a week.
When something happens, there’s no longer any consultation with Xi Jinping; Li Qiang makes the decisions directly.
Li Qiang gave instructions on the Miyun flood on the same day; there were no instructions from Xi Jinping.
Xi Jinping received the next report a week later.
He receives a report every week, and Xi Jinping circles and marks it, but it’s not necessarily Xi Jinping himself who circles it; it could be his secretary.
We see that Xi Jinping’s points and emphasis lack specific content; they are all empty rhetoric and general principles.
In contrast, Li Qiang’s instructions address the events of that day.
The headline of the July 22nd news broadcast was “Vigorously develop agricultural technology and strive to promote agricultural modernization.”
There were no reports of Xi Jinping issuing any instructions regarding the Shandong floods.
The second report was Li Qiang signing a State Council decree promulgating rural road regulations.
The headline of the July 23rd news broadcast was “Made in China Moving Towards Innovation, Continuously Strengthening the Foundation of a Strong Nation.”
The second report was about the CPC Central Committee, the State Council, and the Central Military Commission awarding Cai Xuzhe the Second-Class Aerospace Merit Medal.
The headline of the July 24th news broadcast was Xi Jinping receiving guests.
Xi Jinping met with the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission.
The headline of the July 25th news broadcast was Xi Jinping receiving credentials from newly appointed foreign ambassadors to China.
There are only a few possibilities:
First, Xi Jinping did not receive the report.
Second, Xi Jinping received the report but did not issue any instructions.
Third, Xi Jinping received the report, issued instructions, but it was not reported.
Now, without Xi Jinping, there is no news about him on the news broadcast.
He meets with foreign guests and sends congratulatory letters every day.
If Xi Jinping had issued instructions, it would have been reported.
It has already been reported.
Now it is very likely that Li Qiang is in charge of the flood situation, and Xi Jinping has not been directly involved.
A report is given to Xi Jinping every week, simply to inform him.
This is exactly the treatment of a retired Standing Committee member, retired Politburo member, or retired Central Committee member. Politics.
It’s like the provincial party secretary frequently giving these reports to retired cadres.
On January 22nd, the Provincial Government Office held a Spring Festival symposium for retired comrades in Chengdu. Provincial Deputy Secretary and Governor Shi Xiaolin briefed the retired leaders and comrades on the province’s economic and social development last year and the government’s work plan for this year, and listened to their opinions and suggestions.
Xi Jinping is now enjoying this kind of treatment as a retired leader and comrade, receiving regular reports.
From July 24th to 28th, at the invitation of Hungarian Parliament Speaker Gövel, Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress Zhao Leji paid an official friendly visit to Hungary. This photo shows Zhao Leji meeting with Hungarian President Szów Szów in Budapest on July 25th.
Zhao Leji will then visit Switzerland and attend the Sixth World Conference of Speakers of Parliament.
Therefore, Zhao Leji will be absent from the Politburo meeting at the end of July.
The arrangements are still unknown.
Besides Zhao Leji, He Lifeng is also technically in a state of absence from the Politburo meeting at the end of July. On July 23, Hong Kong state media leaked information that the Politburo meeting at the end of July would deal with Miao Hua and He Weidong.
Reports indicate that the CCP will hold a Politburo meeting at the end of this month, at which time it is highly likely that the charges against Miao Hua, former member of the Central Military Commission and director of the Political Work Department, will be announced. A large number of generals are expected to be purged later.
The Sing Tao Daily published an article today pointing out that, according to convention, Beijing’s central leaders will travel to the coastal city of Beidaihe in early August for a two-week “vacation-style” work period. Before that, they will hold a Politburo meeting at the end of this month to analyze the current economic situation and plan for the second half of the year’s economic work.
However, it was not mentioned whether the schedule for the Fourth Plenary Session would be announced.
Now, only a few things remain to be seen.
He Lifeng is not currently in Beijing.
Representatives from the United States and China are holding a new round of talks in Sweden regarding the long-standing trade tariff dispute.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is meeting with a Chinese delegation led by Vice Premier He Lifeng at the Prime Minister’s office in Stockholm, Sweden.
U.S. President Donald Trump commented on the talks during his visit to Scotland, saying he hopes to see China “open its country.”
Whether Trump’s use of “openness” has political implications is unclear, but in the Chinese context, “openness” does have political connotations, referring to reform and opening up.
Ultimately, opening up means aligning many of China’s rules with global standards, but in reality, China is resisting this alignment.
Historical documents are irrelevant in the present context; a country that disrespects rules and contracts has no future. (Political)
In May, the U.S. and China agreed to reduce massive tariffs on each other’s imports. The U.S. reduced tariffs from 145% to 30%, while China reduced them from 125% to 10%.
Monday’s negotiations were held ahead of the August 12 deadline for a permanent agreement. Officials did not rule out extending the suspension of tariffs.
Jamieson Greer, the Trump administration’s chief trade negotiator and U.S. Trade Representative, told CNBC that the president is overturning old trade agreements.
“For 70 years, our trade policies may have been reasonable at some point, but the end result has been higher tariffs and non-tariff barriers imposed on the United States by other countries,” Greer said. “President Trump is now reversing that through these agreements… This is how to eliminate the trade deficit; this is how to create a manufacturing boom.”
These negotiations come after the U.S. reached significant trade agreements with the EU, Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines in recent days.
Trump stated on Monday that the 15% to 20% tariff range represents a new standard for tariff negotiations.
This comes as the U.S. has already reached agreements with its two largest trading partners, the EU and Japan.
The U.S.’s five largest trading partners are the EU, Mexico, Canada, China, Germany, and Japan.
This means the U.S. has now reached an agreement with its largest trading partner, the EU. Japan is also included.
Mexico, Canada, and China remain.
Mexico and Canada are also special cases, having a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
It’s like leaving only China. Is China supposed to shoulder this alone?
That’s suicidal, ridiculous.
China should compromise soon; otherwise, it will be too late.
The international situation is unfavorable to China.
Now the question is whether Zhao Leji and He Lifeng will be absent from the July Politburo meeting, or whether it will be postponed to August 1st. Politics.
Besides Miao Hua and He Weidong, the biggest point of interest is whether the date of the Fourth Plenary Session will be announced.
This netizen said,
Rumor has it that major cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are indiscriminately advertising a ban on firecrackers, but I don’t know if it’s true . It’ll probably be revealed in August.
Okay, thank you everyone.
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