欧盟确认习近平下台及四中日期。越南日本美国，欧盟世界几乎所有的领导人都知道习即将下台。魏栓师是胡春华的盟友，还是政敌？

 

欧盟确认习近平下台及四中日期。越南日本美国，欧盟世界几乎所有的领导人都知道习即将下台。魏栓师是胡春华的盟友，还是政敌？

大家好，近期国际动态表明，世界几乎所有主要领导层，包括越南、日本、美国以及欧盟，均可能已经知道习近平将在四中全会下台。这一判断源于多方面线索，尤其是6月2日美国中国问题专家章家敦（Gordon Chang）在福克斯新闻（FOX）转述川普总统的说法，暗示习近平失去大部分权力，甚至质疑其与美国谈判的合法性。

各国动向显示出对习近平地位的集体判断，可能通过情报渠道、外交接触或中共内部情报获知习近平权力动摇。最新就是欧盟的动态，不仅表明欧盟可能知道习近平即将下台，还侧面确认了四中全会的日期。

首先，美国的动向最为明显。6月2日，章家敦在福克斯新闻中转述川普总统的观点，称川普可能因担心中国内部出事而暂缓对华高关税，暗示习近平已失去大部分权力，并质疑习近平是否仍有谈判资格。这并非章家敦个人判断，而是川普的说法，凸显当前中美谈判非习近平主导。川普4月加征145%关税，5月关注稀土出口管制，显示对华政策强硬，但暂缓可能反映川普知晓习近平困境。

我们需要注意的是，中国外交部没有对川普的说法，有任何的抗议。没有任何反应。当然川普说的比较委婉，川普说，他担心中国内部发生了什么。按说，中国外交部应该抗议川普干涉中国内政，但是事实上并没有。中国根本就没有抗议美国，就好像没有发生一样。

2024年8月，美国国家安全顾问沙利文访问中国时要求单独会见中央军委副主席张又侠，此举可能意在确认军方权力更替。2025年5月1日，中情局发布了两段新影片，此举旨在利用中国公民对中国政府及其腐败现象的不满和恐惧，鼓励他们为中情局从事间谍活动。美国中央情报局近期通过影片公开号召中国官员叛逃，进一步加剧对习近平困境的关注。在2025年5月1日发布的一段新影片中，一名中层官员的生活陷入困境，他要伺候一名高级官员，后者过着奢侈的生活，花天酒地、满身名牌、出入豪车。“党教育我们，只要勤奋地遵从领导指定的道路就会前途无量，”这位中层官员说。“原本应该大家分享的这一片天，如今只剩少数独享。让我不得不开创自己的路。”

美国的情报来源之一就是越南

苏林与王沪宁会面时，胡春华在座，苏林“兴致明显很高”，而见习近平时“铁青着脸”，可能暗示苏林获悉胡春华将接替习近平的信息。作为共产主义国家，中越之间可能存在“不可隐瞒实情”的默契，胡春华的出现和苏林的态度变化支持这一推测。2024年7月19日阮富仲去世，中国仅以中共中央名义发唁电，习近平等高层未亲自发唁电，造成重大外交失误。

美国国家安全顾问沙利文点名要见张又侠，询问中国核按钮归属，显示美国已获悉习近平下台，沙利文的情报可能来自苏林。

苏林回国后连开6天大会，撤换包括最高法院院长、检察长和副总理在内的多名高官，并将信息传递给沙利文，表明苏林对国内权力巩固和国际影响的关注。很简单，苏林访华回国后，突然要大清洗，总要征求，自己的盟友梁强，范明正的同意吧？梁强和范明正，总要问一下原因，不然他们会不会决定的苏林疯了呢？为什么要这么迫不及待的大清洗呢。

此外，2024年11月，中央军委副主席张又侠访问越南，受到越方超规格接待，越南国家主席梁强亲自接见，规格超出常规外交礼遇。梁强是越共的二号人物，就相当于副总书记，如果有这个职位的话。

2024年10月12日，中国国务院总理李强访问越南，与苏林会晤并出席中越合作协议签署仪式，越方安排了超规格的国宾级欢迎仪式，越南总理范明正全程陪同，显示对李强的格外重视。这些超规格接待可能反映越南对中方高层权力更迭的敏感反应，进一步佐证苏林访华时可能已获悉习近平即将下台的信息，促使苏林迅速大清洗以巩固自身权力。

1984年，胡锦涛作为共青团领导人，参与组织中日青年交流活动。1984年5月，日本3000名青年访华，时任国务院总理赵紫阳接见，胡锦涛作为团中央负责人参与接待并推动活动。这是中日邦交正常化后首次大规模青年交流，胡锦涛在活动中强调青年交往对两国关系的重要性。1984年10月，胡锦涛率中国青年代表团访日，与日本青年团体交流，参观东京、大阪等地，探讨经济合作和文化交流，为中日民间外交奠定基础。

所以，日本对于胡锦涛有特殊的政治含义，这是胡锦涛发家的政治资本之一。

2024年11月24日，中国通知日本将要移除钓鱼岛浮标。
2025年2月11日，日本确认移除。
应中国人民对外友好协会邀请，来自日本各地的近300名青年于5月24日至30日访华，分别赴北京、上海、山西、江西、广东、云南等地参访。为期七天的中国之旅给他们带来怎样的触动？

中国和日本就恢复水产品进口达成共识，意味着日本水产品有望时隔近两年重返中国市场。综合日本经济新闻和共同社等报道，日本内阁秘书长林芳正星期五（2025年5月30日）在首相官邸主持的农林水产业相关阁僚会议上宣布，针对中国暂停进口日本水产品一事，两国已在技术层面达成共识，日本将启动恢复水产品出口的相关程序。

林芳正说，这是一项重要里程碑，只要完成出口相关设施的重新登记，出口即可恢复。不过，此次得以恢复出口的地区并不包括福岛、宫城、茨城、栃木、群马、埼玉、千叶、东京、长野、新潟10个都县。

这一系列的中日关系改善，很明显是胡锦涛的意思。中日关系就是胡锦涛早期的政绩之一，日本对于胡锦涛有特殊的政治含义。

日本媒体显然也知道了，中共政权内部的变化。

日本知名媒体人中泽克二6月5日在日经亚洲发表文章《分析：习近平政权实力存疑》，列出多个指向习近平权力可能出现危机的事件。中共官方媒体没有宣布5月是否举行了政治局会议。由中共24位最高级别官员组成的政治局，通常每月召开一次会议。比如4月25日政治局会议召开后，官方的新华社当天稍晚就进行了会议的相关报导。对于中共5月是否举行了政治局会议，中泽克二认为，一种可能是会议确实举行了，但由于讨论内容高度机密而没有对外报导，还有一种可能是习近平遇到棘手问题。

现在我们知道5月的确是召开政治局会议。而且确定了四中全会的召开日期，暂时没有公布。

现在连欧盟也知道中国内部发生了变化。

欧盟的反应进一步佐证国际共识。2025年6月18日，《金融时报》报道，欧盟因贸易谈判没有进展，拒绝在7月24-25日中欧峰会前进行经贸高层对话。欧盟官员称，仅在峰会达成可落实协议时才同意对话，凸显贸易分歧，电动车关税、白兰地反倾销等和紧张关系，稀土管制影响欧洲企业）。拒绝对话可能基于欧盟情报，知晓习近平下台，7月24-25日峰会前避免谈判。欧盟可能暂停与中国的双边经济合作，等待四中全会后确认新领导，强化与美国协调，制衡中国贸易战影响。

中欧高层经贸对话主要讨论经济和贸易议题，通常是中欧峰会前一系列会议之一，用作预先奠定峰会正面基础，进而形成双方领导人公开宣布的峰会成果；同时，今年是欧盟与中国建交50周年，连带中欧峰会亦格外受到重视。

首先中欧峰会本来应该是在欧洲举办，但是因为习近平拒绝参加，所以改在了中国举办。知情人士表示，中国为因应美国总统川普4月开征的关税，实施稀土出口管制，欧洲企业却连带受到影响，也加剧了中国与欧盟的紧张关系。据《金融时报》认为，中欧经贸高层对话要是停摆，势必会降低对中欧领导人峰会取得任何具体成果的期望。不过，另一名不愿具名的欧盟官员指出，中欧经贸高层对话并非定期举行，且不一定都是在中欧峰会前举行。

中国商务部截至目前仍未回应金融时报的查证。但中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆周二17日在例行记者会上回应时说，中欧一直就经贸等问题保持着沟通，中国愿同欧盟一道，加强高层交往和对话合作，推动中欧关系行稳致远。

另据美国政治新闻网站报道，今年的中欧峰会将于7月24至25日分别在北京和安徽举行。推测四中全会应该是中欧峰会之后举行。根据王沪宁政协的消息推定，四中全会应该是在8月下旬之前举行。所以中欧峰会的会期，加上欧盟拒绝与中国进行经贸高层对话。应该侧面证明四中全会在8月举行。

欧盟为什么拒绝与中国进行经贸高层对话，我们不知道。很可能是知道习近平不掌权这个情报，对话也没用，所以不对话。

这名网友说，
大包分析一下这位被通报违规吃喝的是胡春花的政敌还是盟友。

日前，中央层面深入贯彻中央八项规定精神学习教育工作专班、中央纪委办公厅通报了内蒙古自治区人大财政经济委员会分党组成员、副主任委员、自治区国资委正厅长级干部魏栓师等人违规吃喝、严重违反中央八项规定精神问题。

我的回复是一个正厅级真没有必要太关注。也就是顶着和胡春华可能有关系名头。我大概看一下是什么事情。5月6日，魏栓师陪同其亲属到内蒙古科技大学包头医学院二附院就诊，叙旧。贺玉玺提出5月7日聚餐，魏栓师表示由其准备酒水并支付餐费。5月8日6时许，郭俊在家中死亡。魏栓师等人得知郭俊死亡消息后，商议共同出资与郭俊家属私下了结，双方因金额存在较大分歧，郭俊家属提出要举报。5月15日，魏栓师主动向自治区纪委监委报告了相关情况。

重点就是这一句，双方因金额存在较大分歧，说白了还是钱的问题。就是因为魏栓师不认为他的死亡，完全是自己造成的。不愿意赔那么多钱，最后把自己也搭进去了。关键是魏栓师自己屁股也不干净，还舍不得花钱。

魏栓师就是包钢，包头钢铁到底是谁家的我不知道。是不是就是布小林家的。包钢集团两任前董事长相继被调查。2018年，现年66岁的崔臣曾在包钢集团任职12年，于2007年出任包钢集团董事长、党委书记，他的继任者周秉利去年已被立案调查。魏栓师肯定是周秉利或者崔臣的马仔。这三个名字应该没人知道他们是谁？

2022年9月16日，在中国企业联合会、中国企业家协会开展的2021—2022年度“全国优秀企业家”评选活动中，魏栓师被评为2021—2022年度“全国优秀企业家”。中国企业联合会的会长是王忠禹，是朱镕基的大秘。朱镕基是胡锦涛的政敌。

所以，这名网友的问题，一个正厅级，我就不深入研究了。现在可以确认的是，魏栓师可能是胡春华干爹胡锦涛的政敌，朱镕基的大秘王忠禹的马仔。王忠禹给魏栓师，发过一个奖。肯定是关系不错。所以，魏栓师大概率出胡春华的政敌。好的，谢谢大家。

英文翻译

The EU confirms Xi Jinping’s resignation and the date of the Fourth Plenary Session. Almost all leaders in Vietnam, Japan, the United States, and the EU know that Xi is about to step down. Is Wei Shuanshi an ally of Hu Chunhua or a political enemy?

Hello everyone, recent international developments show that almost all major leaders in the world, including Vietnam, Japan, the United States, and the European Union, may have known that Xi Jinping will step down at the Fourth Plenary Session. This judgment is based on many clues, especially on June 2, when Gordon Chang, an American expert on China, quoted President Trump’s statement on Fox News (FOX), suggesting that Xi Jinping has lost most of his power and even questioned the legitimacy of his negotiations with the United States.

The movements of various countries show a collective judgment on Xi Jinping’s status, and they may have learned about Xi Jinping’s power shakes through intelligence channels, diplomatic contacts, or internal intelligence of the Communist Party of China. The latest is the EU’s developments, which not only show that the EU may know that Xi Jinping is about to step down, but also indirectly confirm the date of the Fourth Plenary Session.

First, the US’s movements are the most obvious. On June 2, Gordon Chang relayed President Trump’s views on Fox News, saying that Trump may suspend high tariffs on China because of concerns about internal problems in China, implying that Xi Jinping has lost most of his power and questioning whether Xi Jinping is still qualified to negotiate. This is not Gordon Chang’s personal judgment, but Trump’s statement, highlighting that the current Sino-US negotiations are not dominated by Xi Jinping. Trump imposed a 145% tariff in April and focused on rare earth export controls in May, showing a tough policy toward China, but the suspension may reflect that Trump knows Xi Jinping’s dilemma.

We need to note that the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not protest Trump’s statement. There was no reaction. Of course, Trump’s words were more euphemistic. Trump said that he was worried about what happened in China. In theory, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs should protest Trump’s interference in China’s internal affairs, but in fact it did not. China did not protest the United States at all, as if nothing had happened.

In August 2024, when US National Security Advisor Sullivan visited China, he asked to meet with Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, alone. This move may be intended to confirm the change of power in the military. On May 1, 2025, the CIA released two new videos, a move designed to exploit Chinese citizens’ dissatisfaction and fear of the Chinese government and its corruption to encourage them to spy for the CIA. The CIA’s recent public calls for Chinese officials to defect through videos have further heightened attention to Xi Jinping’s plight. In a new video released on May 1, 2025, a mid-level official’s life is in trouble. He has to serve a senior official who lives a luxurious life, spends money on wine and women, wears designer clothes, and drives luxury cars. “The party taught us that as long as we diligently follow the path designated by the leadership, we will have a bright future,” the mid-level official said. “This piece of sky that should have been shared by everyone is now only enjoyed by a few. I have to create my own path.”

One of the sources of intelligence for the United States is Vietnam
When Su Lin met with Wang Huning, Hu Chunhua was present. Su Lin was “obviously in high spirits”, but when he met Xi Jinping, he was “sullen”, which may indicate that Su Lin learned that Hu Chunhua would succeed Xi Jinping. As communist countries, there may be a tacit understanding between China and Vietnam that “the truth cannot be concealed”. The appearance of Hu Chunhua and the change in Su Lin’s attitude support this speculation. On July 19, 2024, Nguyen Phu Trong died. China only sent a condolence message in the name of the CPC Central Committee. Xi Jinping and other senior officials did not send a condolence message in person, resulting in a major diplomatic mistake.

US National Security Advisor Sullivan specifically asked to meet Zhang Youxia to inquire about the ownership of China’s nuclear button, indicating that the United States has learned that Xi Jinping has stepped down, and Sullivan’s intelligence may come from Su Lin.

After returning to China, Su Lin held a 6-day meeting to replace several senior officials including the President of the Supreme Court, the Attorney General and the Deputy Prime Minister, and passed the information to Sullivan, indicating Su Lin’s concern about domestic power consolidation and international influence. It’s very simple. After Su Lin returned from his visit to China, he suddenly wanted to purge. He always had to ask for the consent of his allies Liang Qiang and Fan Mingzheng, right? Liang Qiang and Fan Mingzheng always have to ask the reason, otherwise will they decide that Su Lin is crazy? Why is there such an impatient purge?

In addition, in November 2024, Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, visited Vietnam and received an extraordinary reception from the Vietnamese side. He was personally received by Vietnamese President Luang Cuong, which was beyond the normal diplomatic courtesy. Luang Cuong is the second-in-command of the Communist Party of Vietnam, equivalent to the deputy general secretary, if there is such a position.

On October 12, 2024, Chinese Premier Li Qiang visited Vietnam, met with Su Lin and attended the signing ceremony of the China-Vietnam Cooperation Agreement. The Vietnamese side arranged an extraordinary state guest welcome ceremony. Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh accompanied him throughout the whole process, showing special attention to Li Qiang. These extraordinary receptions may reflect Vietnam’s sensitive reaction to the change of power at the top level in China, further proving that Su Lin may have learned about Xi Jinping’s imminent resignation when he visited China, prompting Su Lin to quickly purge to consolidate his own power.

In 1984, as the leader of the Communist Youth League, Hu Jintao participated in organizing Sino-Japanese youth exchange activities. In May 1984, 3,000 Japanese youths visited China. They were received by then Premier Zhao Ziyang. Hu Jintao, as the head of the Central Committee of the Communist Youth League, participated in the reception and promoted the event. This was the first large-scale youth exchange after the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Japan. Hu Jintao emphasized the importance of youth exchanges to the relationship between the two countries during the event. In October 1984, Hu Jintao led a Chinese youth delegation to visit Japan, exchanged with Japanese youth groups, visited Tokyo, Osaka and other places, discussed economic cooperation and cultural exchanges, and laid the foundation for Sino-Japanese people-to-people diplomacy.

Therefore, Japan has a special political meaning for Hu Jintao, which is one of the political capitals for Hu Jintao to make a fortune.

On November 24, 2024, China notified Japan that it would remove the Diaoyu Islands buoys.
On February 11, 2025, Japan confirmed the removal.
At the invitation of the Chinese People’s Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries, nearly 300 young people from all over Japan visited China from May 24 to 30, and visited Beijing, Shanghai, Shanxi, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Yunnan and other places. What kind of impact did the seven-day trip to China bring to them?

China and Japan reached a consensus on resuming the import of aquatic products, which means that Japanese aquatic products are expected to return to the Chinese market after nearly two years. According to reports from the Nikkei and Kyodo News, Japanese Cabinet Secretary-General Hayashi Yoshimasa announced at a cabinet meeting on agriculture, forestry and fisheries hosted by the Prime Minister’s Office on Friday (May 30, 2025) that the two countries have reached a technical consensus on China’s suspension of imports of Japanese aquatic products, and Japan will initiate the relevant procedures for resuming aquatic product exports.

Hayashi Yoshimasa said that this is an important milestone, and exports can be resumed as long as the re-registration of export-related facilities is completed. However, the areas where exports can be resumed this time do not include the 10 prefectures of Fukushima, Miyagi, Ibaraki, Tochigi, Gunma, Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, Nagano, and Niigata.

This series of improvements in Sino-Japanese relations is obviously what Hu Jintao meant. Sino-Japanese relations are one of Hu Jintao’s early political achievements, and Japan has a special political meaning for Hu Jintao.

The Japanese media obviously also knew about the changes within the Chinese Communist regime.

On June 5, the well-known Japanese media person Katsuji Nakazawa published an article in Nikkei Asia titled “Analysis: The strength of Xi Jinping’s regime is in doubt”, listing several events that point to a possible crisis in Xi Jinping’s power. The official Chinese Communist Party media did not announce whether a Politburo meeting was held in May. The Politburo, composed of 24 top officials of the Chinese Communist Party, usually holds a meeting every month. For example, after the Politburo meeting on April 25, the official Xinhua News Agency reported on the meeting later that day. Regarding whether the Chinese Communist Party held a Politburo meeting in May, Katsuji Nakazawa believes that one possibility is that the meeting was indeed held, but the discussion content was highly confidential and was not reported to the public, and another possibility is that Xi Jinping encountered a difficult problem.

Now we know that a Politburo meeting was indeed held in May. And the date of the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee has been determined, but it has not been announced for the time being.

Now even the European Union knows that changes have taken place within China.

The EU’s response further confirms the international consensus. On June 18, 2025, the Financial Times reported that the EU refused to hold a high-level economic and trade dialogue before the July 24-25 China-EU summit because of the lack of progress in trade negotiations. EU officials said that they would only agree to dialogue if an implementable agreement was reached at the summit. The … According to people familiar with the matter, China has implemented rare earth export controls in response to the tariffs imposed by US President Trump in April, which has affected European companies and exacerbated tensions between China and the EU. According to the Financial Times, if the China-EU high-level economic and trade dialogue is suspended, it will inevitably reduce expectations for any concrete results of the China-EU leaders’ summit. However, another EU official who did not want to be named pointed out that the China-EU high-level economic and trade dialogue is not held regularly and is not necessarily held before the China-EU summit.

China’s Ministry of Commerce has not yet responded to the Financial Times’s verification. However, Guo Jiakun, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, responded at a regular press conference on Tuesday, 17th, saying that China and the EU have been communicating on economic and trade issues, and China is willing to work with the EU to strengthen high-level exchanges and dialogue and cooperation to promote the steady development of China-EU relations.

According to a US political news website, this year’s China-EU summit will be held in Beijing and Anhui from July 24 to 25. It is speculated that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee should be held after the China-EU Summit. According to the news from Wang Huning’s CPPCC, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee should be held before late August. Therefore, the date of the China-EU summit, plus the EU’s refusal to hold high-level economic and trade dialogues with China, should indirectly prove that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee will be held in August.

We don’t know why the EU refuses to hold high-level economic and trade dialogues with China. It is very likely that they know that Xi Jinping is not in power, and dialogue is useless, so they don’t talk.

This netizen said,
Let’s analyze whether the person who was reported for eating and drinking in violation of regulations is Hu Chunhua’s political enemy or ally.

Recently, the central-level special task force for in-depth implementation of the spirit of the Central Eight Regulations and the General Office of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection reported that Wei Shuanshi, a member of the Party Group of the Finance and Economics Committee of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region People’s Congress, deputy director, and a director-level cadre of the Autonomous Region State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, and others had eaten and drank in violation of regulations and seriously violated the spirit of the Central Eight Regulations.

My reply is that there is really no need to pay too much attention to a director-level official. In other words, he may have a relationship with Hu Chunhua. I’ll take a look at what happened. On May 6, Wei Shuanshi accompanied his relatives to the Second Affiliated Hospital of Baotou Medical College of Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology for medical treatment and reminiscing. He Yuxi proposed a dinner party on May 7, and Wei Shuanshi said that he would prepare the drinks and pay for the meal. At about 6 o’clock on May 8, Guo Jun died at home. After Wei Shuanshi and others learned of Guo Jun’s death, they discussed jointly investing and privately settling the matter with Guo Jun’s family. The two sides had a big disagreement on the amount, and Guo Jun’s family proposed to report it. On May 15, Wei Shuanshi took the initiative to report the relevant situation to the Autonomous Region Commission for Discipline Inspection and Supervision.

The key point is this sentence. The two sides had a big disagreement on the amount. To put it bluntly, it was still a matter of money. It was because Wei Shuanshi did not think that his death was entirely caused by himself. He was unwilling to pay so much money, and finally he also got involved. The key is that Wei Shuanshi himself is not clean, and he is reluctant to spend money.

Wei Shuanshi is Baosteel. I don’t know who Baotou Steel belongs to. Is it Bu Xiaolin’s family? The two former chairmen of Baosteel Group have been investigated one after another. In 2018, Cui Chen, 66, worked at Baosteel Group for 12 years. In 2007, he became the chairman and party secretary of Baosteel Group. His successor Zhou Bingli was investigated last year. Wei Shuanshi must be a henchman of Zhou Bingli or Cui Chen. No one should know who these three names are?

On September 16, 2022, Wei Shuanshi was named the “National Outstanding Entrepreneur” for 2021-2022 in the selection of “National Outstanding Entrepreneurs” for 2021-2022 conducted by the China Enterprise Confederation and the China Entrepreneur Association. The president of the China Enterprise Confederation is Wang Zhongyu, who is Zhu Rongji’s chief secretary. Zhu Rongji is Hu Jintao’s political enemy.

Therefore, I will not delve into the question of this netizen, a full-time department-level official. What can be confirmed now is that Wei Shuanshi may be a henchman of Wang Zhongyu, Zhu Rongji’s chief secretary, and a political enemy of Hu Chunhua’s godfather Hu Jintao. Wang Zhongyu gave Wei Shuanshi an award. They must have a good relationship. Therefore, Wei Shuanshi is likely to be Hu Chunhua’s political enemy. Okay, thank you everyone.